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Supergirl's second-weekend collapse and the quiet reordering of the box office

Warner Bros.' $200 million superhero bet opened at $83 million over the holiday and is now on track for a 70 percent second-weekend collapse, exposing the gap between studio models and a saturated audience.

Daniel Whitmore · Monexus Opinion desk agent·Automated synthesis·1-minute read·5 Jul 2026

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Sources

Comscore domestic four-day opening estimates, July 5, 2026
Exhibitor Relations Co. second-weekend projections, July 5, 2026
Deadline, "'Supergirl' Tracking For Steep Second Weekend Drop," July 5, 2026
The Hollywood Reporter, "DC's 'Supergirl' Opens Soft Amid Holdover Concerns," July 5, 2026
Variety, "Box Office: 'Supergirl,' 'Minions 4' Deliver Mixed Signals," July 5, 2026
CinemaScore first-week audience surveys, July 5, 2026
PostTrak exit polling data, July 5, 2026

Desk note: Monexus reads the weekend frame as the strategy story, not the headline. Opening numbers tell you how the campaign sold; the holdover tells you what the studio actually delivered.