Iran publishes 14-point draft of US deal: what we know, what we don't

Tehran published a 14-point draft framework for a deal with Washington on Sunday, the first time the Iranian state has put its own negotiating position on paper in a single document during the current round of talks. The text, circulated through state-aligned channels and corroborated by Telegram-based monitoring accounts, lays out immediate sanctions relief on oil sales, access to frozen funds, and a sequenced rollback of banking, transport and insurance restrictions. Western wire reporting on the same day put a number on the fund access: roughly $300 billion, citing the Wall Street Journal. None of the four Western wire confirmations from the same 24-hour window have published the 14 points themselves. Iran's draft is, for the moment, the only document on the table.

The shape of the framework matters more than its precise language. If the draft holds, the United States would lift sanctions fast enough for Iranian crude to reach spot markets within days, not months. Iranian officials have framed the offer as a confidence-building first tranche, with nuclear constraints and regional security architecture to follow in a second phase. Western reporting, by contrast, has framed the same terms as the centerpiece of a single comprehensive package. The sequencing question, who gives what first, is where the deal lives or dies, and where Tehran's framing and Washington's framing are not yet aligned.

The 14 points Tehran wants the world to read

The document reads as a wishlist written by a state that believes it has earned the right to dictate terms. Sources monitoring Iranian state-aligned Telegram channels describe immediate, unconditional waivers on the export of oil and petrochemical products; the unfreezing of central-bank reserves held abroad; and the unfreezing of funds belonging to Iranian public and private entities, including those tied to shipping, ports and energy logistics. Banking channels would reopen through licensed intermediaries, with the Central Bank of Iran restored to SWIFT connectivity for humanitarian and trade transactions. Insurance and reinsurance lines, including maritime cover and hull-and-machinery policies for tankers, would be re-authorised. Transport sanctions, including those on Iran Air and the national merchant fleet, would be suspended. The framework further proposes the unfreezing of frozen funds belonging to Iranian nationals abroad and a phased release of seized or impounded cargoes held in third countries.

Two political items sit inside the economic package, and they are not small. The text reportedly addresses the future of the Revolutionary Guards' foreign-designation status and proposes a sequencing of any nuclear commitments that runs in parallel with the sanctions rollback, not after it. That sequencing is the inversion of the script Washington has been running since 2015, when nuclear limits came first and sanctions relief came later. Tehran's draft puts the relief first and the constraints second.

The Western number, and the Western framing

Wall Street Journal reporting on Monday put a figure on the fund-access piece: $300 billion. Cointelegraph's Telegram feed, citing the WSJ, summarised the architecture as immediate oil-export authorisation and waivers across banking, transport and insurance lines. Polymarket's market on Trump unfreezing Iranian assets was trading at 84% at 22:40 UTC on Monday; a sister market on the deal text being released to the public by month-end sat at 94% the same evening. The market on Mojtaba Khamenei signing the deal was at 4%. Markets are not the same as confirmation, but the implied probability is high, and the implied signatory is not Iran's supreme leader's son.

President Trump, speaking the same day, said the deal includes "99.9% of what he wants," a characterisation no Iranian state-aligned outlet has echoed. Israeli requests to see the text were rebuffed by the Trump administration, according to the New York Post. That detail has not been picked up by the wires; it travels for now through Unusual Whales' X account. The asymmetric access, Washington and Jerusalem briefed, Jerusalem told no, matters because the regional architecture the deal is supposed to stabilise cannot stabilise if the main regional counterparty is reading the text through press leaks.

Why the 14 points are, and are not, the deal

Iranian state media has good reason to publish. The 14 points function as a public anchor for Tehran's interpretation of any final agreement: when the text of a deal is eventually released, the Iranian public, and the regional audience, will read it against this baseline. That is not unique to Iran; every negotiator publishes a draft to shape the post-signature narrative. What is unusual here is the breadth of the economic ask in a single document. Sanctions waivers on oil and shipping, plus fund access plus SWIFT plus insurance plus a sequenced nuclear constraint, is closer to a comprehensive settlement than a confidence-building first tranche.

The markets believe the comprehensive version. Sensex rallied for a third consecutive day on the deal headline, up 540 points at the Indian open on Monday. Bitcoin cleared $67,000. Barclays told clients the deal is unlikely to resolve oil-supply issues overnight and maintained a $100 Brent forecast. Polymarket's deal-architecture market, on who physically signs, opened the same day with no settled favourite. The contradiction between market pricing and analyst caution is the right one to sit with: spot prices are pricing a headline, Barclays is pricing a supply curve, and the Polymarket signatory market is pricing a process.

What is verified, and what is not

Verified, as of the close of the reporting window: the existence of the 14-point document, its publication through Iranian state-aligned Telegram channels on Sunday, the WSJ figure of $300 billion in fund access, and the broad architecture of immediate oil-export authorisation with banking, transport and insurance waivers. Verified, separately: Trump's 99.9% characterisation; the Israeli request to see the text and its rebuff; Barclays' $100 Brent forecast; the market-implied probability of asset unfreezing at 84%; and the signatory-favourite question being live.

Not verified, and worth saying so: the precise text of the 14 points in any Western-language source; the exact sequencing of sanctions relief against nuclear commitments; the identity of the signing party on the Iranian side; the Israeli government's own characterisation beyond the Post report; and any independent confirmation of the $300 billion figure beyond WSJ sourcing. The Telegram posts flagged in Monexus's monitoring feed describe the document; they do not contain it.

The framing gap that will outlast the deal

Tehran is selling this as a win on day one. Washington is selling it as a 99.9% win for Trump. Jerusalem is selling nothing, because it has not been shown the document. Barclays is selling patience. The Indian market is selling relief. Bitcoin is selling liquidity. Each of those framings is internally consistent; none of them are mutually consistent. The political risk of the deal, in the weeks ahead, is that the 14-point anchor becomes the metric by which the final text is judged in Tehran, in Jerusalem, in Washington and in the trading desks of Mumbai. If the final text reads closer to the Western reporting than to the Iranian draft, the Iranian hardliners will call it a betrayal before the ink dries. If it reads closer to the Iranian draft, the Israeli and Gulf reaction is the variable.

The Polymarket question of who physically signs the document is, in that sense, the most consequential market on the board. Four percent for Mojtaba Khamenei means the Iranian system is signalling that the signatory is a state institution, not a personality. The 14-point document is the Iranian state trying to put itself, rather than any single figure, at the centre of the deal. Whether that institutional framing survives the Western negotiating process is the open question the next ten days will answer.